The Industry Standard - Amazon abandons Kindle 1.0, one way or the other - Comments

I have to say, the closing

Terry VerHaar — Fri, 29 Aug 2008 10:25:24 -0700

I have to say, the closing of this prediction prematurely is pure bull. It goes against several principles of efficient markets. First, just because someone official says something doesn't make it so. You say you'll reassess if something changes but that approach is the second problem. Markets are meant to be smooth. I am certain that if you left this prediction open, the market would not yet assess the odds at 0%. That's the beauty of the market. In fact, you have shot yourself in the foot with this behavior because you undercut what markets are supposed to do and this means people lose faith in the integrity of the market and, this, make it less attractive to participate in the market. By falling prey to your own impatience, everyone loses - especially you.

So, here's the original post

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:43:00 -0700

So, here's the original post from Brad Stone at the New York Times in his Bits technology blog.

Here's the important part:

I asked Craig Berman, Amazon’s chief spokesman, for comment on a possible Kindle 2.0, and today he responded.

“Don’t believe everything you read,” Mr. Berman said. “There’s a lot of rumor and speculation about the Kindle. One thing I can tell you for sure is that there will be no new version of the Kindle this year. A new version is possible sometime next year at the earliest.”

This absolutely kills this prediction/rumor. It doesn't need to stay open until the end of the year, as Amazon's own chief spokesman has now spoken on the record. Some cynics could argue that he's lying, that he's saying this simply to try and to continue to sell Kindle 1.0's. We have to take him at his word.

Regardless of any arguments over the wording of the prediction, the bottom line is that this is beyond debate now - it's not going to happen "one way or the other."

If later the fabled 2.0 comes out before January (not the minor update but the major overhaul), we'll reassess this. Judged, 0%.

@Eric, great find. Does this

David Kuan — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 12:10:19 -0700

@Eric, great find. Does this mean judgement can be made?

Check this out: "There will

Eric Hill812251 — Thu, 28 Aug 2008 11:54:55 -0700

Check this out:
"There will be no new version of the Kindle this year," Amazon.com spokesman Craig Berman told The New York Times. Berman seems intent on stomping rumors of a new Kindle for Christmas. His message? Stop saving up. Buy some more e-books instead.

@Eric, thanks. I am getting

David Kuan — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 17:53:56 -0700

@Eric, thanks. I am getting sloppy lately :( Maybe it is time for me to take a break.

Be sure to slow down and

Eric Hill812251 — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 15:45:00 -0700

Be sure to slow down and read those links carefully, David. The first "upgrade" is expected in the next 1-2 months, and it is expected to be a very low-grade update. Not enough the meet the criteria (if true). The wholesale redesign with the larger form factor, screen, etc. is scheduled "in the coming months." Now, if that's pre-January, you're absolutely right. But the mild upgrade (which all reports say there will be two in the next few months - a tiny upgrade, then a full-fledged 2.0 upgrade). The major 2.0 upgrade would be a valid trigger to judge this early, as Kindle 1.0 will officially be dead by then, or at least nearly forgotten (if it isn't already). I've never personally ever seen a Kindle in public - ever. When you consider how long the Kindle has graced Amazon.com's homepage, they must be really be performing poorly.

New Kindle to come as early

David Kuan — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 07:36:56 -0700

New Kindle to come as early as September with redesigns that meet judgement criteria.

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/08/here_co...
http://www.engadget.com/2008/08/26/249-kindle-2-0-significantly-thinner-...

Personally, I can't believe

David Kuan — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 12:42:00 -0700

Personally, I can't believe the hype caused by the statements today. Equating the Kindle to an iPod is rather reckless for a few reasons ...

1. Kindle is designed to have wireless service connectivity (which requires the support of a wireless carrier). In the US, the carrier of choice is Sprint and the wireless technology used is EVDO Rev 0. An iPod does not require a carriers service and as such is more portable.
2. Size - Kindle is way too big to be truly portable like iPod
3. Cost - Kindle still goes for about $360. Pricing should be lower for broader mass appeal
4. Music has much more mass appeal relative to reading

Having sold a mere 240K units in a market of over 300M population, I consider the Kindle an underperformer and Amazon miscalculated.

Jemima Kiss's provide's

Garrick Hileman932530 — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 11:21:58 -0700

Jemima Kiss's provide's figures and comments on the Kindle becoming the "the iPod of the book world":

http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/digitalcontent/2008/08/is_amazons_kindle_the...

@Garrick, I concur. The

David Kuan — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:25:54 -0700

@Garrick, I concur. The heading might be best revised to reflect either critieria for consistency.

The prediction title

Garrick Hileman932530 — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 15:07:48 -0700

The prediction title originally read just "Kindle" and was changed recently by the prediction market editor to "Kindle 1.0".

Shiv, I'm not sure I agree that "releasing Kindle 2.0 would be abandoning Kindle 1.0" Abandonment implies more than simply releasing a new version in the same product line.

Perhaps I'm out of touch here, but using the term "abandon" to describe a "redesign" is confusing to me. In this context, I've only ever heard the term "abandon" used in association with leaving a product category or something along those lines.

You can abandon a strategy, a product line, etc. However, I would say that it's much clearer to say a company "upgrades" rather than "abandons" when it issues a new, improved version of the product.

Thoughts?

@Garrick, my original

David Kuan — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:58:21 -0700

@Garrick, my original suggestion did not include the redesign criteria. When it was accepted by TIS as a prediction, the title was modified with "one way or another" and the additional redesign criteria was added.

Well, I agree that titles

Shiv Bhandari — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:22:21 -0700

Well, I agree that titles should match the fine print, if not convey all the message. What I mean to say is, the title shouldn't be misleading in any way. Also, the phrase "one way or the other" is superfluous. But technically releasing Kindle 2.0 would be abandoning Kindle 1.0 UNLESS 1.0 is still available. There's nothing misleading here, it's just that the prediction's not been worded well.

The probability that the

Garrick Hileman932530 — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 12:00:44 -0700

The probability that the Kindle will be "abandoned" given recent news is highly unlikely. However, if you read the prediction’s fine print, this prediction isn't just about whether or not the Kindle will be abandoned.

Instead, some form of redesign, such as adding a color screen, will constitute a favorable prediction judgment.

@ David. Question: why were “abandon” and “redesign” lumped together in this prediction?

In general, I think we should closely match prediction titles with the text explaining how the prediction will be judged. It’s possible that someone might trade a prediction on the title alone without reading the full prediction. In life, a lot of people skip over the fine print.

All, let me know if I’m out in left field on this one and am the only person who has an issue with the prediction’s title. Thanks.

@Bradley, the pink Kindle

David Kuan — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 12:45:07 -0700

@Bradley, the pink Kindle was merely Curnchgear's rendering (rather than a spyshot). The rendering seemed like was generated in haste.

Amazon abandons Kindle 1.0, one way or the other

David Kuan — Fri, 16 May 2008 14:39:32 -0700

Judgment on August 28, 2008: Judged at 0%. See comment below for full explanation. --The Industry Standard

The Kindle service is, in a way, an Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO) to Sprint.

The MVNO demise has been well reported (Amp'd, Disney Mobile, Mobile ESPN, etc).

Despite the rumored demands for Kindle, sales have potentially slowed to a point which Amazon is nervous to reveal.

While eBook sales have moved in the right direction the last couple of years, they are absolutely dwarfed by the advent of the Ultra-Mobile PC (UMPC) and especially the continued support for printed books (US 2007 sales were updwards of $13 billion).

As stated by Brad Stone in the NYTimes, "The Kindle, Amazon’s electronic book reader and online service, represents a major commitment [emphasis ours] by its chief executive, Jeff Bezos, ... to help shape the future of books. So it stands to reason that there will be both software upgrades and new versions of the device."

This is a prediction that Amazon will do something drastic to either revive the concept, or kill it altogether by abandoning the service completely by the end of 2008.

For this prediction to be judged favorably, one of the following must occur by Dec. 31, 2008:

The Kindle will undergo a major redesign, which may include a bigger screen with color screen and/or a a touchscreen. For this option to be accepted, the product must be available for sale on the amazon site prior to the end of the year. Pre-orders for a product to be shipped in Q1 2009 will also be considered a favorable judgment. NOTE: an update that includes colored "skins" or other minor cosmetic changes will not be considered a major redesign even if Amazon tries to market it as "Kindle 2.0".
Amazon will announce the discontinuing of service for the Kindle. The official announcement need only occur before the end of the year. The specific date of discontinued service need not be in 2008 for this to be judged favorably.

Bets will close on Dec. 25, 2008. Judgement will occur the first week in January, 2009.

(Ed. Note: This prediciton has been slightly modified by The Standard to clarify the prediction's rules).