Ed Colligan is a nice guy and visionary marketer who, nevertheless, deserves blame for most of Palm's problems, including the failed launch of the Palm Pre last weekend. At least by sacrificing Colligan so quickly, that must be what "the new Palm" hopes we'll think.
Ex-Apple exec Jon Rubinstein, who replaces Colligan, joined the company two years ago, when Evolution partners sunk $325 million into trying to recapture Palm's magic. If there is anyone to bless or blame for the Pre, it's Rubinstein.
The problem with the Pre is not that it's a bad product so much as it's a bad idea. A business plan that begins with, "First, Apple or Research in Motion needs to screw-up royally," can't be a good one.
Yet, that is what has to happen for the Pre to gain serious traction.
Apple's response? Sell a product that is at least as good as the Pre, its iPhone 3G, for half the price of Palm's wonder child. Granted having AT&T as sole carrier has become a ball-and-chain for Apple of late, but anyone who buys a $199 Pre over a $99 iPhone 3G is seeing something that has quite eluded me.
The best hope for Pre, in the short term, is for Sprint to take such decisive pricing action on its service contracts that it makes Verizon and AT&T look hideously overpriced. How likely is that?
As for Research in Motion screwing up, I don't really see the BlackBerry has having any place to go but down, but it will happen slowly. Big companies are not likely to switch to the Pre in large enough numbers to really help Palm do more than limp along, at least in the near term.
If I am right and this scenario plays out, Colligan will end up either totally scapegoated (which he doesn't deserve) or looking like a genius (ditto) for getting out now.
Meanwhile, the Pre will never develop the serious developer mojo it needs to have a reach chance at success. This needs to happen before the expected tsunami of Google Android devices later this year again takes the marketplace's attention away from the Pre.
That, of course, presumes the Pre will be able to regain some of the glory that it, in less than three days, lost to Apple.
It is, of course, possible that Palm has a next-generation Super Pre, a real game-changer, waiting in the wings. That is hard to imagine, but not impossible. At least for Palm's sake, I hope it isn't.
Sadly, Palm has had its chance in the marketplace and Colligan had a large role in the company's failure. But, he doesn't deserve to get tagged with the failure of Palm's rebirth. That honor goes to Rubenstein and a group of investors--again nice folks--who offered too little, too late.
It may turn out that the Pre's best days are already behind it.
David Coursey doesn't hate the Pre; he just doesn't see how it can become a real success. He tweets as techinciter and can be e-mailed using the form at www.coursey.com/contact.
Reprinted with permission from PC World. Story copyright 2009 PC World Inc. All rights reserved.
Comments
"The problem with the Pre is not that it's a bad product so much as it's a bad idea. A business plan that begins with, "First, Apple or Research in Motion needs to screw-up royally," can't be a good one.
Yet, that is what has to happen for the Pre to gain serious traction."
Really? I do not see your logic? The pre will do very well, and considering it will be on VZW in 6 months, and another webOS device on ATT as well, I really think its a win win for Palm.
The pre does not have to out-perform the iphone or BB while on sprint, they are making inroads until they dump their device on every platform. They are showing to the world that the device is GREAT, and works very well (much better than the first iPhone I must add). The app store will ramp up quickly, apps like Intuit GoPayment etc. I think you drink too much of the Apple Kool-aid...
You have way to much doom and gloom. Its a phone, very nice, small, functional, and does some things NO other phone does.
Think about this beyond the initial purchase of the phone for a second. The Pre, while more expensive initially, will cost less over the course of the 2 year contract, because Sprint's Everything Data plans just dominate the market. The real problem is that most people don't think like that, and thats what Sprint seems to be trying to push with the Pre. The 99 dollar iPhone also isn't "at least as good as" the Pre, its not even close to as good as, considering the Pre has the same processing power as the upcoming 3GS model(they both use Cortex A8 ARM based processors with PowerVR 2d/3d graphics, both are clocked at 600mhz, and both have 256mb of ram). Run the numbers, I think you will see my point, and hopefully wise up. The Pre launch also was nowhere near a failure. They sold over 100k phones over the weekend, it was the most successful Sprint launch to date. The previous most successful was the Instinct, which sold 100k over the first week. The Pre hit that number in 2 days. Its not a phenomenon like the iPhone launch, but then, no other phone ever released has had that sort of phenomena.
I also love how you used an article from January to compare the Pre vs the iPhone 3g, when there are a plethora of articles out there much more current, based on actual hardware. Something tells me this opinion article of yours should be taken with a grain of salt.
While it may be true that Colligan is not solely to blame for Palm's troubles and the ho-hum Pre launch nor that fact that the Pre isn't all the special, calling him a visionary marketer is laughable. Just remember this is the guy who, when rumors circulated that Apple was developing a phone, snickered with great hubris that Apple didn't have a chance--that Palm and the other phone vendors know way more about mobile phones than Apple ever could and Apple were fools to think they could just come in as neophytes and have a hit product let alone take the market from the seasoned pros. Colligan is now famous for having failed spectacularly. The fact is, were Colligan really a "visionary" the iPhone would have been a Palm product. Colligan's accomplishments pale in comparison to the real visionary marketer--Steve Jobs. Palm is right to dump him but wrong to not have done it when the first iPhone showed him up.
You clearly haven't done your homework. Let's take a look at PALM's stock. There has been a steady climb since the initial word of the Pre, resulting in well over a 400% increase from $3 and change to over $14 a share. Since the actual release date of the Pre, PALM's stock has jumped nearly 10%, and this is just within the first 2 weeks. The Palm Pre launch was, and will continue to be, a success. It's unfortunate that one-sighted people like youself understate reality. Your logic for reasoning is severly flawed, and I hope no one believes the hogwash coming out of your mouth.
In addition to the comments already made, I'd like to point how the author cherry picks a single article which says that the "reviews aren't good enough", and then somehow turns that into a "failed pre launch". A bit rich considering that the article was written before the launch actually occurred.
And then ignores this:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1035_3-10260208-94.html
Now you can evaluate "breaks sales records" however you like, but personally I would rate selling out Palm Pre phones at most stores as being somewhere above "failure".
I've come to expect stuff like this coming from tweets, not journalists.
Personally, I am in the market for a new smartphone, and am watching all players -- including the Palm Pre -- with interest. And waiting, for now.
Palm Pre is certainly at a disadvantage being a late entrant to the market. Previously, that was not a big deal in smart phones but the app store has made smart phones more like game systems - the developers follow the # of units sold. Fortunately, the most successful apps on iphone are likely to be ported over to Palm Pre as the economics will justify the effort for those that will sell the most on a smaller platform. And, it already has the most important applications in GPS navigation, google maps, music, where, news readers, facebook, twitter enablers but alas no flute.
Having said that, you underestimate the competitiveness of the Palm Pre. As a user, it is really an impressive device. Is it better than an iphone? That depends on what you value. I value a real keyboard and the ability to multi-task. These are two features where Palm Pre beats iphone. Like most Palm Pre users, I am very impressed with the device and its operating system. The synch between facebook and all of your contacts into one place is simple and very cool. It is software that organizes our fragmented contact files.
Also, as far as pricing. The Palm Pre is much better priced than the iphone. I can't believe the attention you give to $200 versus $100. Both phones require a two year service agreement. Sprint is significantly less expensive for a reasonable talk plan, unlimited data and text than Apple. I am paying more than $50 less per month for my family plan on Sprint than I would on Apple -- over two years that is $1,200. Oh, less the extra $100 I spent on the phones up front (two of them) - so $1,000 savings over two years. Come on, man, you are buying into the phone price hype versus the real cost of the 2-yr plan. If you are a Sprint customer, you can get additional credits on your bill and they will rebuy your old phone in many cases - in my case this amount to $210 -- so net cost of the Pre is under $100 a phone, though I would have payed a multiple of that. This thing is really slick/functional.
Oh, and let us not overlook that many of us find Sprints actual cell network to be much better than AT&Ts. You know - if you value the whole phone thing.
Palm Pre is certainly at a disadvantage being a late entrant to the market. Previously, that was not a big deal in smart phones but the app store has made smart phones more like game systems - the developers follow the # of units sold. Fortunately, the most successful apps on iphone are likely to be ported over to Palm Pre as the economics will justify the effort for those that will sell the most on a smaller platform. And, it already has the most important applications in GPS navigation, google maps, music, where, news readers, facebook, twitter enablers but alas no flute.
Having said that, you underestimate the competitiveness of the Palm Pre. As a user, it is really an impressive device. Is it better than an iphone? That depends on what you value. I value a real keyboard and the ability to multi-task. These are two features where Palm Pre beats iphone. Like most Palm Pre users, I am very impressed with the device and its operating system. The synch between facebook and all of your contacts into one place is simple and very cool. It is software that organizes our fragmented contact files.
Also, as far as pricing. The Palm Pre is much better priced than the iphone. I can't believe the attention you give to $200 versus $100. Both phones require a two year service agreement. Sprint is significantly less expensive for a reasonable talk plan, unlimited data and text than Apple. I am paying more than $50 less per month for my family plan on Sprint than I would on Apple -- over two years that is $1,200. Oh, less the extra $100 I spent on the phones up front (two of them) - so $1,000 savings over two years. Come on, man, you are buying into the phone price hype versus the real cost of the 2-yr plan. If you are a Sprint customer, you can get additional credits on your bill and they will rebuy your old phone in many cases - in my case this amount to $210 -- so net cost of the Pre is under $100 a phone, though I would have payed a multiple of that. This thing is really slick/functional.
Oh, and let us not overlook that many of us find Sprints actual cell network to be much better than AT&Ts. You know - if you value the whole phone thing.
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